THE Philippine economic recovery is expected to lag the region due to its poor performance in containing the coronavirus outbreak, Oxford Economics said.
In a Research Briefing issued Friday, Oxford Economics said some Asia- Pacific countries are “moving in the right direction” while others like the Philippines are in a “more precarious” situation.
“We expect other APAC countries, that have made less progress with COVID-19 containment, to lag the upturn,” according to the briefing note, “Asia Pacific: Mixed progress towards recovery from COVID-19.”
It said the Philippines “has been struggling” after recording a growing number of cases.
The note updates a May 12 report in which Oxford Economics concluded that countries that had “convincingly contained” the COVID-19 outbreak could see workplace mobility bouncing back close to normal levels, or would “move in that direction.”
“We expected these economies to lead the economic recovery,” it said, noting that economies where workplace mobility is picking up as restrictions eased include China, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Vietnam while those “moving in that direction” are Australia and Thailand.
“The situation is more precarious elsewhere. After having reported a relatively low number of new daily cases for a long time, the Philippines has been struggling with sharply rising caseloads since late May,” it said.
It said the “200-300” daily cases were “relatively modest” laregly due to the strict lockdown in Luzon while the spike in new cases reported by the end of May could be partly due to easing lockdown restrictions earlier that month in some parts of the country.
“The government has also ramped up both its testing capacity and the actual number of tests carried out,” it said.
“The path to sustainable economic recovery is thus more challenging and exposed to risks in these four countries,” it said, saying that the outbreak has not yet been contained in Singapore and Indonesia while infections continue to rise in India as well as in the Philippines. — Beatrice M. laforga