THE International Labor Organization (ILO) said it revised upwards its estimate of work hours lost during the second quarter due to the pandemic to the equivalent of 400 million jobs lost from 305 million, adding that recovery prospects for the second half are clouded.
In its “ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work: 5th Edition,” the ILO said the lost work hours are expressed in job-loss terms on the basis of an eight-hour workday. It now estimates the lost hours at 14% of the total, up from 10.7% previously.
“The latest estimates presented in this edition of the ILO Monitor reveal a decline in global working hours of 14% in the second quarter of 2020 (up from the previous estimate of 10.7%), which is equivalent to 400 million full-time jobs,” the ILO said in the June 30 report.
In Asia and the Pacific, the decline in work hours for the second quarter is now 13.5% or 235 million jobs, against the previous estimate of a 10.0% decline.
The ILO said its work-hours losses include a worst-case scenario of 11.9% or 340 million full-time jobs in the event of a second wave. The optimistic scenario, which assumes industries immediately bounce back, projects the loss of 1.2% of work hours equivalent to 34 million full-time jobs.
The ILO’s base-case scenario is losses of 4.9% of all work hours, equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs. — Gillian M. Cortez